There’s something funny about how people talk about Superman right now. Not funny ha-ha, more like funny weird. Because if you look at the data, especially the latest unaided awareness scores from The Quorum, you’d think Superman is already halfway to a billion dollars. It’s leading the pack of movies that are still months away. No story trailer, no poster with a clear view of the face (just JJ Abrams’s signature lens flare), no real merch push at Walmart. And yet, five percent of surveyed moviegoers (following the release of Minecraft) named Superman off the top of their heads as a movie they’re aware of. That puts it above Jurassic World: Rebirth, Wicked, and anything else in the conversation this far out. On paper, that looks like momentum.
But I’ve never really trusted these numbers.
I’m a data-driven guy, but I don’t trust Nielsen. I don’t trust CinemaScore. I don’t like how they collect their data. The sample sizes are small, the methodology is vague, and the results are usually just vibes dressed up as science. These aren’t measurements of excitement. They’re barely measurements of interest. It’s the same issue I have with political polling—snapshots trying to predict momentum, but with no way of accounting for context or outcome, or accountability when they get it wrong.
And in the case of Superman, what I see is a recognition of the logo. That’s all.
The Superman “S” is one of the most recognizable logos in modern history. Hell, in some cases you could probably make the argument that it is bigger than Jesus. You see it everywhere. It’s a brand. It’s nostalgic. It means something. So yeah, a teaser image with that symbol is going to stick in people’s heads. But knowing a movie exists isn’t the same thing as wanting to see it. Recognition doesn’t equal anticipation. That logo’s doing a lot of work, and I’m not convinced it’s actually selling the movie.
Right now, the only Superman merch I’ve seen out in the wild is one t-shirt at Walmart with the new logo on it, and a few more options at Hot Topic. Not exactly a full retail push. No real David Corenswet imagery. No wide rollout. Just some online images, logo tees, and a Krypto shirt. It’s all iconography and safe bets. Krypto can sell toys. The logo can move t-shirts. But that’s not a campaign. That’s brand management.
And Superman’s cinematic brand hasn’t exactly been stable.
Since Man of Steel, every version of Superman on screen has felt like damage control. Didn’t work? Add Batman. Didn’t make enough money? Reshoot. Still didn’t land? Release a new cut. Try again. The character never got a chance to stand on his own, and the movies kept shifting the tone, the focus, the marketing. Batman didn’t bring heart to the DCEU. He brought box office security. He was a guaranteed draw. That’s why they put him in. It was a business decision.
Meanwhile, Superman stayed in flux.
What’s even weirder is how online discourse is inflating the sense of excitement. For weeks, certain corners of Twitter had convinced themselves a teaser trailer would drop before or at CinemaCon. People were hyped. There were countdowns, speculation, and constant chatter. Then nothing happened. No trailer. Just a five-minute preview shown privately to exhibitors.
That preview ended up being a win, but not for the reasons the hype cycle predicted. It got attached to Minecraft, which opened April 4 and has already made over $550 million worldwide. A lot of people saw that Superman preview—people who don’t live on film Twitter. Real audiences. Kids. Families. Casual moviegoers. That’s meaningful exposure. That’s where some of the unaided awareness probably came from. Not the echo chamber, but the Minecraft crowd.
And yet, the same online group is back at it. Now they’re saying a trailer will drop April 18 because it’s Superman Day. James Gunn has all but said that’s not happening. The five-minute preview is already out there. But the hype engine doesn’t stop. It just redirects. It’s fans generating expectations in a closed loop. That can be fun, but it’s not reliable, and it’s not representative of general audience interest.
Which brings me back to unaided awareness. The Quorum also reported that Thunderbolts had hit seven percent unaided awareness. That movie is now tracking for one of the lowest opening weekends in MCU history. So what does five percent mean for Superman? Nothing concrete. It tells us people know it exists. That’s it. It doesn’t tell us they care. It doesn’t tell us they’ll buy a ticket. It doesn’t tell us the movie has momentum.
Superman still has one of the most powerful logos in pop culture. But right now, the logo is doing all the work. Not the character. Not the cast. Not the campaign. Just the symbol. That’ll get attention. That’ll sell some t-shirts. But it won’t be enough to bring people in on July 11 unless there’s something real behind it. I want the movie to be great. I want James Gunn to succeed. But I’m not going to confuse awareness with excitement or hype with heat.
The logo might open the door. But it won’t be enough to carry the cape.
Hollywood After Dark 